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Market Dynamics Report

March 2017: Spotlight on Coal. Volumes rebound from a slow start to 2017. PolPx volumes added to CEE Power.

March closes the quarter with a brighter tone as volumes across the board see largely double-digit MoM growth. Monthly contracts traded across all commodities was 8.344m; this is up 24% vs. February and is the highest number of monthly contracts traded since June 2016. Euro Gas was the largest contributor, accounting for 63% of the increase in contracts traded. Nevertheless, all commodity groupings except NBP saw double figure growth in traded contracts. Unfortunately, this strong turnaround was not enough to overcome a slow start to the year, as YTD total monthly contracts traded are 10% below the same time last year.

Gas market volumes surged MoM but with some very clear star performers. TTF dominated the MoM growth jumping 553 TWh (31%) over February. This outperformance has turned around the slow start for the year, ending the quarter up 1% vs. YTD 2016. Although from a smaller base, the winner for the largest MoM percentage increase goes to PSV, up 135% vs. February. Overall, PSV is up 8% YTD and 61% YoY. This increased volume has pushed PSV past Gaspool to become the fourth largest gas commodity on YTD volume. Austrian VTP is another strong performer, posting 15% YoY growth and up 14 TWh YTD. Last month NBP showed signs of resurgence, reducing TTF’s dominance by posting the only positive MoM growth, but the tables have turned back to the norm as NBP saw a comparatively flat MoM growth of 2% vs. February. This left TTF to dominate with 138% of NBP’s volume.

The surge in volumes continued for Power. German Power dominated the absolute MoM growth, jumping 202 TWh (43%) over February. This was double the increase seen from all other Power commodities combined. To add to this, German Power was the only category to see a YTD increase, up 6% vs. 2016. Even so, there were some other strong performers. Spanish Power was up 111% MoM and 12% YoY while volume moved away from broker bilateral, down 12%, in favor of broker clear who were up 11%. CEE Power also performed well, with volume jumping 55% MoM and 36% YoY. This month we have added both historical and current PolPx trading volumes to the CEE Power grouping.

EUA volumes continue the positive picture, up 18% MoM and 24% YoY. Unfortunately, the stellar performance in March has not been enough to overcome the slow start to the year, down 6% YTD vs. 2016. Exchange execution increased its market share of EUA volume by 10% at the expense of broker bilateral. CER’s have shown growth in all metrics, with YTD volumes almost 8x the volume seen in YTD 2016.

Coal followed the MoM trend set by others with API2 and API4 jumped 31% and 88% respectively. However, looking at the Coal market over a longer time horizon paints a different picture. Volumes are down 50% YTD vs. 2016; meanwhile prices remain high, 62% up YoY. API2 front month price volatility as reported by LEBA, dropped to 12% in March 2017, the lowest we have seen since April 2016 and far from its high of 65% in October 2016. What is driving this dramatic cooling in volumes?

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13.03.17

Volumes down YoY; German Power & Austrian VTP buck the trend; Emissions sees a dynamics shift.

February 2017: Volumes continue to decline, prices cool off but UK Gas swims against the tide.

February picked up January's trend and ran with it as the majority of commodity groups continued MoM and YoY declines in volume. Monthly contracts traded across all commodities totaled 6.674m in February 2017, down 10% from January 2017 and 25% below that of February 2016. The declines in volume were across the board with...


10.02.17

Volumes down YoY; German Power & Austrian VTP buck the trend; Emissions sees a dynamics shift.

January 2017: Volumes down YoY; German Power & Austrian VTP buck the trend; Emissions sees a dynamics shift.

In contradiction to last year, 2017 has started without a bang with all commodity groupings posting a YoY decline in volume. Monthly contracts for January 2017 were 7.434m, down 16% vs. 2016 but up 26% MoM. Coal led the downward trend seeing a 52% drop in monthly contracts vs. Jan-16, although up 55% vs....


13.01.17

Recap on 2016, broker bilateral share continues to fall driven by Gas and Power, spotlight on Power markets.

December 2016: Recap on 2016, broker bilateral share continues to fall driven by Gas and Power, spotlight on Power markets.

Now the year has drawn to a close, let's recap on some key themes seen throughout 2016. The Coal market showed a significant shift away from broker cleared; starting the year at 97% market share and ending it at 72% with exchange execution being the main benefactor. TTF took the crown from NBP as...


13.01.17

Recap on 2016, broker bilateral share continues to fall driven by Gas and Power, spotlight on Power markets.

December 2016: Recap on 2016, broker bilateral share continues to fall driven by Gas and Power, spotlight on Power markets.

Now the year has drawn to a close, let's recap on some key themes seen throughout 2016. The Coal market showed a significant shift away from broker cleared; starting the year at 97% market share and ending it at 72% with exchange execution being the main benefactor. TTF took the crown from NBP as...


13.12.16

Volumes up, broker bilateral share down driven by Gas, spotlight on Gas markets

November 2016: volumes up, broker bilateral share down driven by Gas, spotlight on Gas markets

November 2016 saw total market volumes grow 7% vs. October 2016, to 8.09 million monthly contracts traded. All commodity groupings saw an increase in volumes this month. Emissions grew by the largest percentage, up 23% MoM to 666 million monthly contracts traded, contributing 24% of total market volume growth. All other...


10.11.16

TTF further solidifies position as largest market.

October 2016: TTF further solidifies position as largest market; Euro Power volumes up; Coal exchange executions at record levels; broker bilateral market share on the rise

October saw overall market volumes drop 1% vs. September to 7,572 million monthly contracts traded. Volume growth was mixed across the commodity classes, with the Power (up 16% MoM) and Emissions (up 10% MoM) markets seeing large volume gains but...


13.10.16

September was a month of increasing volumes and prices across the board.

September was a month of increasing volumes and prices across the board as every Power, Gas and Coal commodity (except PSV) posted their highest month end price for the year to date. Volatility was up, particularly in the power markets – UK Power volatility as measured by LEBA was 814% during September (vs. 113% in August), and French Power prices were volatile in the last week of the month. Total market share was fairly stable for the...


14.09.16

Monthly Dynamics Report August 2016

August 2016 saw total volume remain relatively flat, with a 0.9% drop vs. July to achieve 5.868 million monthly contracts traded for the month. Although overall volumes remained flat, it was a different story when looking at individual commodity groupings. Emissions saw a 39% drop in monthly contract volume and along with Euro Power, which saw a 12% decline, accounted for a majority of the downward pressure on total volume. UK Power, Coal and...


10.08.16

Volumes down across the board - impact of Brexit, MiFID 2 measurement, summertime?; exchange executions record for Coal

July 2016 saw volumes across the Euro Commodity markets drop 29% vs. June 2016. Total monthly contracts traded of 5.922m is the lowest monthly volume we have seen in 2016. Despite this, volumes YTD continue to show strong growth, with 54.13m monthly contracts traded up 20% vs. the same period last year. What's behind this month's significant drop in volume? Is it the full month impact of the Brexit vote? A reaction to the start of the...