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Market Dynamics Report

November 2018: TTF volumes continue to rise, Emissions volume data correction and coal volumes up 18% MoM.

Total monthly contracts traded in November came in at 9,884,471, down 4% MoM. The decline was mainly due to lower Emissions, Euro Power and UK Gas volumes while Coal and Euro Gas bucked the trend by posting MoM volume increases. Total 2018 YTD monthly contracts traded are up 11% to 85.5m vs 2017 YTD. LEBA, from whom we source broker bilateral data, discovered incorrect contributed data for Emissions from Jan 2018 to Oct 2018. The over representation had inflated total Emissions volume by 8% in 2018 YTD.

Gas

TTF continued to be the most traded gas contract notching up a new monthly volume record and is now up 30% YTD 2018 vs 2017 YTD. The increased TTF volume has mainly been responsible for Euro Gas' 25% YTD increase although support from every continental market except ZEE has supported the trend. NBP volume continues to go in the opposite direction with volumes down across all three metrics and monthly volumes are now dwarfed by TTF, 239% in November.

Power

Euro Power volumes continue to be modestly up YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017 with support coming from German Power (up 2% YTD) and Italian Power (up 30% YTD) markets offset by declines in the French (down 10% YTD) and Nordic (down 8% YTD) markets. The flat total volumes have been accompanied by a shift in the Euro Power market structure with Broker Bilateral losing 3% market share YTD, now holding 51% of market volumes. UK Power volumes continue to be down YTD despite November 2018 volumes up 22% YoY.

Coal

The 170 MMT of coal traded in November was the highest monthly volume since May 2017. Additionally volumes have increased each month since July 2018 despite prices falling approximately 10% in the same period. Broker Cleared recorded the majority of volume increase and has resulted in higher market share, now sitting at 66% of total coal volumes in November. ICE continues to hold the majority of volumes, 83% in November with CME holding the other 17%.

Emissions

Emissions have witnessed an increase in volumes and prices throughout 2018. 2018 YTD volumes are up 44% off the back of higher Exchange Executed and Broker Cleared volumes. The increase is despite the correction in data from LEBA which had overstated the total Emissions volume by 8% from Jan 2018 to Oct 2018. The Broker Bilateral and Broker Cleared segments have been effected with Exchange Executed the beneficiary of greater market share.

LEBA informed us that the data issue is isolated to the Emissions contracts they report on (EUA and CER) and that upon learning of the error rectified it immediately. Please direct any questions in regards to this data correction to LEBA.

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