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Market Dynamics Report

2016 continues to be a year of bucking the trend, with April volumes higher than March for the first time since our records began in 2011. Weather seasonality affects prices and volumes in the Euro Power and Gas markets covered in this report. In general April tends to be the start of spring with warmer weather across the continent. This year we saw April recording temperatures lower than usual, resulting in rising prices and increased volatility. Oil prices also recovered during the month. The result was a 13% increase in traded volumes to 8.151m monthly contracts traded for April vs. March, and a 61% increase vs. April 2015.

Amongst the increased volumes, we saw TTF solidify its position as the largest single commodity market by volume traded covered in this report. TTF volumes at 2,022 TWh were 115% of NBP's 1,751 TWh for April 2016, as TTF grew 20% vs. March while NBP grew just 3%. YTD we see TTF volumes at 7,948, 105% of NBP's 7,588 TWh. TTF's pole position is firm. Within the growing volumes we also saw an increase in the cleared market. The TTF cleared market gained 3% share to 32% this month, with exchange execution volume of 544 TWh (27% market share) the highest since our records started, as both PEGAS and ICE saw double digit growth in exchange executions vs. March. The NBP cleared market gained 1% share vs. March, to 55% of the total market.

Increases in the cleared market extend beyond TTF and NBP, as German Power and French Power recorded their highest cleared market volumes, and subsequently their highest cleared market share, since our records began. German Power volumes were up 37% MoM, with broker bilateral volumes up 27%, and the cleared market up 50%. The futures exchanges benefitted the most from this gain, as EEX volumes were up 55%, Nasdaq OMX volumes were up 76% and EPEX spot volumes were down 2% MoM. French Power volumes were up 36% MoM, with broker bilateral volumes up 23% and cleared volumes up 58%. Again EEX futures benefitted the most with volumes up 78%, while EPEX spot volumes were down 11%.

UK Power market share saw a return to the brokers, as exchange executions fell 39% MoM, while broker bilateral volumes increased 11%. This resulted in market share split of 89% broker bilateral / 11% exchange execution. 11.1 TWh of the 13.2 TWh exchange executions was traded via auction, with the remaining 2.1 TWh from continuously traded exchange markets.

Downloadable Content

File:
Trayport Euro Commodities Report April 2016

Downloadable Content

File:
Trayport Euro Commodities Report April 2016