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Market Dynamics Report

Total market volumes for February 2016 dropped back from the record high seen in January. Monthly contracts traded were 2% lower at 8.685 million. Coal, UK Gas and Euro Power all recorded MoM drops in volume, Emissions and UK Power were flat, while Euro Gas bucked the trend and recorded positive growth in volume in February.

Euro Gas volumes were up 5% MoM and are up 27% YTD 2016 vs. YTD 2015. TTF is the main driver of this growth with volumes up 5% MoM and 31% YTD 2016 vs. YTD 2015. TTF accounted for 78% of the Euro Gas groupings' 2,775 TWh traded this month. TTF hit a new monthly record with 2,169 TWh traded this month. This is 108% of NBP's 2,014 TWh traded, and marks the second month that TTF has overtaken NBP as the largest gas market covered in this report. YTD 2016 TTF is also the largest gas market, with 4,230 TWH at 102% of NBP's YTD 2016 volume of 4,135 TWh.

Austrian VTP also hit record volumes this month, with 49 TWh traded, up 27% MoM. YTD 2016 vs YTD 2015 Austrian VTP volumes are up 42%. Despite this, Austrian VTP remains the smallest gas hub included in the Euro Gas grouping, and contributed 1.8% of the Euro Gas groupings' volume this month. Zeebrugge and Gaspool recorded positive MoM volume movements, up 23% and 9% respectively, while the remaining hubs recorded negative volume growth MoM.

Spanish Power and UK Power also continued their strong start to 2016. UK Power volumes were flat MoM at 148 TWh, equalling last month's record. Given the remaining power markets saw decreased volumes MoM, February sees UK Power grow to the second largest power market covered in this report, just scraping by Nordic Power's 147 TWh traded this month. It has been five years since we saw this kind of liquidity in UK Power. What's driving this growth?

Spanish Power volumes were up 13% MoM and are up 26% YTD 2016 vs YTD 2015. While February's volumes were the sixth largest since our records begin, it marks a six month upward trend in Spanish Power volumes. In 2015, volume slumped 35% vs. 2014, to 180 TWh traded. Since the 2015 volume nadir of 8.4 TWh in August, volumes have tripled, with MoM increases seen in all but two of the six subsequent months. Are we seeing a return of liquidity in Spanish Power? Spanish Power market structure is dynamic, with three venues offering OTC trade registration and two venues offering exchange execution. February saw the largest broker cleared volume since our records start, and the cleared market increased 25% to 66% market share. The cleared market share split for February was 49% OMIP / 28% EEX / 23% MEFF.

Downloadable Content

File:
Feb 16 Commodities Report

Downloadable Content

File:
Feb 16 Commodities Report