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Market Dynamics Report

February 2019: Another record month for Euro Gas, driven by TTF and NCG highs. German Power up 8% MoM, Emissions up 8% MoM.

February 2019 saw 8.970 million monthly contracts traded, up 2% MoM. Emissions was the largest climber, 8% vs January, with Euro Power up 6%. Following a record start to the year, Euro Gas reached new heights in February at 3,889 TWh, up 4% MoM. The remaining groups saw a decline in volumes, with the UK commodities registering the largest drops, UK Power down 18% and UK Gas down 12% - could the UK's particularly mild winter be behind this? Total contracts traded are up 18% vs YTD 2018.

Gas

As mentioned, Euro Gas recorded 3,889 TWh in February, up from January's previous high of 3,756 TWh. TTF, the largest constituent of the group, rose 3% MoM to end at 3,136 TWh - also a record. With NBP down 12% MoM at 1,001 TWh, TTF was 313% of NBP's volume in February, the first time we have seen this figure over 300%. Euro Gas is up 37% vs YTD 2018, with TTF up 36%. Europe is expected to be the fastest-growing market for LNG in 2019, and with TTF integral as a hedging tool for LNG we await to see how much this further drives volume throughout the year.

It was an interesting month for the remaining Euro Gas commodities, whilst MoM performance was varied volumes remained high vs YoY figures, signalling continued strength of the group. NCG was up an impressive 35% from its January record at 292 TWh, whilst Gaspool, down 11%, still recorded its third highest volume since records began (since Jan-11). It was a similar story for VTP, PSV and France Hubs, where MoM results were mixed, yet volumes ranked in the top three historically. With the regional markets often traded as a spread to TTF, it begs the question of how much their growth contributes to TTF's new highs.

Market share was only slightly affected, Euro Gas as a whole saw exchange executions give up just over 1% share, moving primarily to broker bilateral. Within NCG's growth we did see a 4% shift towards broker bilateral from exchange executions, whilst NBP saw 3% share move from the cleared to the brokered market.

Power

Euro Power rose 6% MoM, driven in the most part by its largest contributor, German Power, which was up 8% vs January. Results for the remaining commodities were mixed, with CEE Power rising the most, up 26% MoM, whilst Spanish Power fell 8%.

YTD volumes are down 1% vs 2018, with German Power up 3%. The YTD drop is largely driven by French Power, down 32% YTD – it had a very strong start to 2018. Front month German Power prices have dropped 34% since Dec-18, compared to a 10% drop over the same period last year. With the mild European weather pushing prices downwards, how much would this have driven volatility in the markets? Broker bilateral saw market share losses in six of the eight commodities; however the overall impact was minor, with broker bilateral share down 0.4% as a whole.

UK Power fell 18% MoM, however volumes are up 15% vs YTD 2018. In February we saw a 2% shift away from the brokered market towards exchange executions this month.

Coal

Coal volumes dropped 6% MoM, with API2 falling 4% and gC NEWC down 31%. API4 saw a 29% rise vs January. Exchange executions gained 5% market share this month largely driven by a shift in that direction in API2. CME's cleared market share rose 2% to 25%, with ICE holding the remaining 75%. API2 front month price was down 5% MoM at $75.05 per tonne. Coal volumes are 8% down vs YTD 2018.

Emissions

Emissions rose 8% MoM to after being the only faller in January. The group is up 40% vs YTD 2018, buoyed by the growth in second half of 2018. We saw a 2% shift in market share to broker bilateral this month, mainly at the expense of broker cleared, whilst Dec-19 price was down 3% at €22.30 / tonne.

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13.02.19

January 2019: Record month for Euro Gas, mixed performance for Euro Power, broker bilateral market share gains in five of the six commodity groups

January 2019: Record month for Euro Gas, mixed performance for Euro Power, broker bilateral market share gains in five of the six commodity groups.

January 2019 saw 8.818 million monthly contracts traded, up 45% MoM following a low December, with all groups rising with the exception of Emissions. Following its record low in Dec-18, Coal rose 123% MoM, with UK Gas (63%) and Euro Gas (60%) also notable monthly risers....


16.01.19

December 2018: NBP and Coal lowest months on record, recap on 2018, total volume up 10% vs 2017, TTF and EUA standout years.

December 2018: NBP and Coal lowest months on record, recap on 2018, total volume up 10% vs 2017, TTF and EUA standout years.

Total monthly contracts traded in December came in at 6,076,181, down 32% MoM. All groups dropped in the seasonally low month of December, led by Coal    (-64%) and UK Gas (-43%), with Euro Gas and UK Power both falling 32%. Total 2018 monthly contracts traded ended at 91,538,536, up 10% vs...


19.12.18

November 2018: TTF volumes continue to rise, Emissions volume data correction and coal volumes up 18% MoM

November 2018: TTF volumes continue to rise, Emissions volume data correction and coal volumes up 18% MoM.

Total monthly contracts traded in November came in at 9,884,471, down 4% MoM. The decline was mainly due to lower Emissions, Euro Power and UK Gas volumes while Coal and Euro Gas bucked the trend by posting MoM volume increases. Total 2018 YTD monthly contracts traded are up 11% to 85.5m vs 2017 YTD. LEBA, from...


15.11.18

October 2018: TTF and EUA continue their rapid growth with further records; power market volume traded down MoM; coal market YTD volumes continue trend of decreasing volume and increasing exchange execution market share

October 2018: TTF and EUA continue their rapid growth with further records; power market volume traded down MoM; coal market YTD volumes continue trend of decreasing volume and increasing exchange execution market share.

October 2018 saw a continuation of September's trends, with both TTF and EUA posting record volumes traded. Monthly contracts traded were up 6% vs. September, led by Emissions, Euro Gas and Coal, up 26%, 12% and...


17.09.18

September 2018: TTF and EUA with record volume months, German Power highest since Nov-16.

September 2018: TTF and EUA with record volume months, German Power highest since Nov-16.

September 2018 was a tale of the large commodities within the groups driving high monthly figures. 8.888 million monthly contracts were traded, up 29% MoM, with all groups rising vs August. Emissions was the standout up 60% as its strong year continued. Euro Power rose 46% MoM, reaching a high not seen since Nov-16, with Euro Gas rising 24%...


13.09.18

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018 saw 6.912 million monthly contracts traded, up 16% MoM, signalling the end of the summer lull in trading. All groups rose MoM, UK Power the standout up 26% with UK Gas also strong up 24%. Euro Gas drove the MoM growth however, up 18% MoM it accounted for 54% of the total monthly growth. YTD we have seen 58.864 million monthly...


09.08.18

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018 saw 5.953 million monthly contracts traded, down 18% MoM, with total volumes the lowest recorded since April 2017. All groups fell vs June - UK Gas most notably down 28%, with Euro Gas, Euro Power and Coal all dropping 17% MoM. YTD we have seen 51.953 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs...


16.07.18

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018 saw 7.287 million monthly contracts traded, down 14% MoM. High temperatures across Europe appear to have brought the summer trading lull a month earlier than 2017. All groups fell vs May, UK Power the highest with a 22% drop, with Emissions (18%), Euro Power (14%) and UK Gas (13%) showing notable drops too. YTD...


13.06.18

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD.

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD. TTF remains strong, exchange executions break 40% market share in Coal.

May 2018 saw 8.408 million monthly contracts traded, up 22% MoM following a low April. All groups rose vs April, with UK Power the highest, recording a 31% MoM increase. Euro Gas, UK Gas and Euro Power also saw noticeable increases at 26%, 25% and 23% respectively. YTD we have seen 38.605 million...