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Market Dynamics Report

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018 saw 5.953 million monthly contracts traded, down 18% MoM, with total volumes the lowest recorded since April 2017. All groups fell vs June - UK Gas most notably down 28%, with Euro Gas, Euro Power and Coal all dropping 17% MoM. YTD we have seen 51.953 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs YTD 2017. With MoM metrics subject to seasonal distortion, YoY metrics are a valuable insight. Emissions, Euro Gas and Euro Power are up vs this time last year, whilst UK Gas, UK Power and Coal have all fallen. With the continental heatwave predicted to last until October, how will this shape European energy demand toward the end of the year?

Gas

All gas markets fell MoM, with Gaspool showing the largest drop, retreating 38%. Exchange executions saw gains in a number of the smaller gas markets, growing their share in the recently volatile France Hubs by 13%, with Gaspool and Austria VTP also showing exchange execution growth primarily at the expense of broker bilateral. NBP retreated 28% MoM to 951 TWh, while TTF fell 16% to 1,707 TWh, 179% of NBP's volume. Broker cleared lost 3% share in NBP's volume, with broker bilateral gaining 2%. TTF had the opposite story, where broker bilateral lost 2% share to broker cleared. YoY the picture is rather varied, PSV is up 37%, and TTF gained 17%. The latter's strong influence has pushed Euro Gas up 14% YoY, however this masks a weak summer for the smaller gas markets, five out of seven show flat or lower volumes against this time last year.

Power

Power saw MoM declines in all markets except for Belgium Power, which shows strong growth in all three metrics. Nordic Power and Italian Power saw the largest MoM decline at 25% and 23% respectively, whilst German Power fell 19% MoM. Broker bilateral lost 5% market share in German Power, with 4% moving to exchange executions. Exchange executions currently hold 23% market share in German Power, the highest since April-17. Over the past year it has hovered around the high teens, far from the 30% high seen in July 2016. Amongst other Euro Power markets, gains in market share were varied. CEE Power gained 14% in broker cleared at the cost of exchange executions, whilst Belgium Power saw a 12% decline in exchange executions split between broker cleared and broker bilateral. A quick look at YoY shows a strong picture. Euro Power is up 9% driven by German Power's 9% growth, only French Power and Dutch Power register negative change against July 2017.

Coal

Coal's downward trend continues, as all markets fell MoM, YTD and YoY. API2 fell 13% MoM with broker cleared taking 3% market share from exchange executions. CME gained 1% in cleared market share, up to 25%. API2 front month price fell 3% to $95.10 per tonne.

Emissions

Emissions fell 12% MoM however is up 49% YoY. CER registered strong broker cleared volumes despite the time of year, however remains considerably down (77%) YTD vs last year. EUA prices for Dec-18 rose 16% MoM to €17.40.

Downloadable Content

File:
Trayport Euro Commodities Report - July 2018


16.07.18

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018 saw 7.287 million monthly contracts traded, down 14% MoM. High temperatures across Europe appear to have brought the summer trading lull a month earlier than 2017. All groups fell vs May, UK Power the highest with a 22% drop, with Emissions (18%), Euro Power (14%) and UK Gas (13%) showing notable drops too. YTD...


13.06.18

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD.

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD. TTF remains strong, exchange executions break 40% market share in Coal.

May 2018 saw 8.408 million monthly contracts traded, up 22% MoM following a low April. All groups rose vs April, with UK Power the highest, recording a 31% MoM increase. Euro Gas, UK Gas and Euro Power also saw noticeable increases at 26%, 25% and 23% respectively. YTD we have seen 38.605 million...


15.05.18

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA.

April 2018 saw 6.893 million monthly contracts traded, down 15.7% vs March 2018. All groups except Emissions saw MoM declines, with Euro Gas the greatest, down 28% (1,199 TWh) to 3,155 TWh. UK Power and Coal also saw noticeable drops of 11% and 7% respectively, with UK Gas and Euro Power experiencing a smaller percentage but...


17.04.18

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018 saw 8.181 million monthly contracts traded, up 9.8% vs. February and although March had one more trading day than February, this is still the first time since March 2017 that monthly contracts have broken the 8 million mark. UK Power, Emissions and Euro Gas...


12.03.18

February 2018: February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP

February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP.

Volume growth across the Euro Commodities markets was varied this month as monthly traded contracts grew 6% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017 but declined 2.8% MoM to settle at 7.454 million monthly contracts traded (February had 20 trading days vs. January’s 23). Euro Gas, Emissions and Euro Power were positive...


13.02.18

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

Volume growth in the Euro Commodities markets in January 2018 was mixed. Total volumes grew 2% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017, to 7.67 million monthly contracts traded. Euro Gas and Emissions were positive contributors to this growth, up 17% and 3% YTD 2018 vs. YTD...


17.01.18

December 2017: Recap on 2017, total volume down 8% vs. 2016, numerous events affecting gas markets in December.

December 2017: Recap on 2017, total volume down 8% vs. 2016, numerous events affecting gas markets in December.

Monthly volumes in December 2017 were down 20% to 6.280 million monthly contracts vs. November 2017. All commodity groupings contributed to the monthly decline following a similar trend to previous years. Coal had the largest decline, down 50% while UK Gas declined 27% and Euro Power 24%. Total market volumes...


14.12.17

Gas drives MoM growth, French Power supply constraints linger and Coal continues shift to exchange execution.

November 2017: Gas drives MoM growth, French Power supply constraints linger and Coal continues shift to exchange execution. 

What a start to December it has been with a gas explosion at Baumgarten gas facility and the North Sea crack likely to drive trading activity in the normally subdued last month of the year. December promises to bring an interesting report, not only our annual summary and discussion on Mifid II market...


21.11.17

Volumes down MoM, French Power prices continue to rise driven by supply constraints and ICE winning in Coal.

October 2017: Volumes down MoM, French Power prices continue to rise driven by supply constraints and ICE winning in Coal.

October saw monthly contracts decline from their high in September to 7,053m, down 9.8% MoM. Gas markets were the main driver, accounting for two thirds of the total MoM decline. In contrast, strong YoY performances from Emissions (up 33% YoY) and UK Gas (up 5% YoY) have helped reduce the YTD...