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Market Dynamics Report

October 2018: TTF and EUA continue their rapid growth with further records; power market volume traded down MoM; coal market YTD volumes continue trend of decreasing volume and increasing exchange execution market share.

October 2018 saw a continuation of September's trends, with both TTF and EUA posting record volumes traded. Monthly contracts traded were up 6% vs. September, led by Emissions, Euro Gas and Coal, up 26%, 12% and 18% MoM respectively. UK Gas was down 3% MoM and UK and Euro Power were down 5% and 14% respectively.

Gas

The Euro Gas grouping saw record monthly volumes, at 4.8 million monthly contracts traded. All commodities included in the Euro Gas grouping saw growth, with TTF posting another record volume month, up 8% vs. September's previous high. NCG, Gaspool, France Hubs, Austria VTP and ZEE all saw double digit growth for the month. The growth in volumes only slightly impacted market share, with exchange executions up 1.5% at the expense of both broker cleared and broker bilateral. NBP did not show the same growth for the month, down 3% vs. Sep-18. Could the change of the gas year at the beginning of October, coupled with increased hedging of LNG against TTF, be likely drivers of the volume growth this month? Prices held up vs. last year but dropped vs Sep-18.

Power

All power markets with the exception of CEE Power showed a decline in volumes in October after the high of September. This was led by Belgian Power, down 30%, with German, Dutch, French and Nordic Power all showing double digit percentage declines. Despite the decline Euro Power volumes are still up 2% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017. Market share for the month moved similarly to Euro Gas, with exchange executions gaining 1% at the expense of broker bilateral and broker cleared volume.

Coal

The coal market has been characterised by declining volumes and relatively stable prices for the last couple of years. October 2018 saw MoM increases in volume for API2 and gC NEWC, while API4 declined. During this time of market volume decline, exchange executions have seen their share increase from 8% YTD 2016 to 37% YTD 2018. October saw the fourth largest volume in exchange executions since our records start, at 54 million metric tonnes, and 38% market share.

Emissions

Emissions continue their rapid growth in volume traded. October saw the emissions grouping of EUA and CER volume combined hitting a record, the highest total volume traded since November 2012. EUAs led the charge, again having a record volume traded month, at almost 1.5 billion metric tonnes traded. Prices declined in October from their peak last month. A lot of the volume growth is coming from the brokered market, with brokered market share YTD 2018 at 39%, vs. 33% YTD 2017 and 25% five years ago in YTD 2013.

Downloadable Content

File:
Trayport Euro Commodities Report October 2018


17.09.18

September 2018: TTF and EUA with record volume months, German Power highest since Nov-16.

September 2018: TTF and EUA with record volume months, German Power highest since Nov-16.

September 2018 was a tale of the large commodities within the groups driving high monthly figures. 8.888 million monthly contracts were traded, up 29% MoM, with all groups rising vs August. Emissions was the standout up 60% as its strong year continued. Euro Power rose 46% MoM, reaching a high not seen since Nov-16, with Euro Gas rising 24%...


13.09.18

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018 saw 6.912 million monthly contracts traded, up 16% MoM, signalling the end of the summer lull in trading. All groups rose MoM, UK Power the standout up 26% with UK Gas also strong up 24%. Euro Gas drove the MoM growth however, up 18% MoM it accounted for 54% of the total monthly growth. YTD we have seen 58.864 million monthly...


09.08.18

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018 saw 5.953 million monthly contracts traded, down 18% MoM, with total volumes the lowest recorded since April 2017. All groups fell vs June - UK Gas most notably down 28%, with Euro Gas, Euro Power and Coal all dropping 17% MoM. YTD we have seen 51.953 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs...


16.07.18

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018 saw 7.287 million monthly contracts traded, down 14% MoM. High temperatures across Europe appear to have brought the summer trading lull a month earlier than 2017. All groups fell vs May, UK Power the highest with a 22% drop, with Emissions (18%), Euro Power (14%) and UK Gas (13%) showing notable drops too. YTD...


13.06.18

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD.

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD. TTF remains strong, exchange executions break 40% market share in Coal.

May 2018 saw 8.408 million monthly contracts traded, up 22% MoM following a low April. All groups rose vs April, with UK Power the highest, recording a 31% MoM increase. Euro Gas, UK Gas and Euro Power also saw noticeable increases at 26%, 25% and 23% respectively. YTD we have seen 38.605 million...


15.05.18

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA.

April 2018 saw 6.893 million monthly contracts traded, down 15.7% vs March 2018. All groups except Emissions saw MoM declines, with Euro Gas the greatest, down 28% (1,199 TWh) to 3,155 TWh. UK Power and Coal also saw noticeable drops of 11% and 7% respectively, with UK Gas and Euro Power experiencing a smaller percentage but...


17.04.18

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018 saw 8.181 million monthly contracts traded, up 9.8% vs. February and although March had one more trading day than February, this is still the first time since March 2017 that monthly contracts have broken the 8 million mark. UK Power, Emissions and Euro Gas...


12.03.18

February 2018: February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP

February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP.

Volume growth across the Euro Commodities markets was varied this month as monthly traded contracts grew 6% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017 but declined 2.8% MoM to settle at 7.454 million monthly contracts traded (February had 20 trading days vs. January’s 23). Euro Gas, Emissions and Euro Power were positive...


13.02.18

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

Volume growth in the Euro Commodities markets in January 2018 was mixed. Total volumes grew 2% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017, to 7.67 million monthly contracts traded. Euro Gas and Emissions were positive contributors to this growth, up 17% and 3% YTD 2018 vs. YTD...