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Market Dynamics Report

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD. TTF remains strong, exchange executions break 40% market share in Coal.

May 2018 saw 8.408 million monthly contracts traded, up 22% MoM following a low April. All groups rose vs April, with UK Power the highest, recording a 31% MoM increase. Euro Gas, UK Gas and Euro Power also saw noticeable increases at 26%, 25% and 23% respectively. YTD we have seen 38.605 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs YTD 2017. This was driven by Euro Gas up 21% YTD and Emissions up 53%, Euro Power was even YTD, whilst UK Power, UK Gas and Coal all recorded declines.

Euro Gas saw its strong year continue, up 21%, recording its third highest month (since Jan-11). TTF recorded its second highest month ever with 2,376 TWh, 114 TWh behind the record set in March 2018. Exchange execution drove the TTF volumes taking 3% market share from both broker bilateral (-2%) and broker cleared (-1%). YTD TTF’s volume stands at 170% of NBP volume, up from 118% this time last year. MoM growth was seen in five of the seven commodities, as ZEE and France Hubs saw the only declines, down 20% and 6% respectively. PSV saw a 44% MoM increase, recording the third highest volume recorded at 95 TWh (since Jan-11). Front Month NBP and TTF prices continued to rise MoM, up 8% and 10% respectively. With inventories dropping to a five year low following the bitterly cold winter, what can we expect of prices through the rest of the year?

All commodities within Euro Power saw both MoM and YoY increases. The smaller commodities are all showing growth however Nordic Power and German Power’s slow start to the year mean YTD Euro Power is even vs. YTD 2017. Standouts were Italian Power, Belgium Power and Spanish Power up 61%, 47% and 41% MoM respectively. Much of this MoM growth was driven by broker bilateral, with seven of the nine Power commodities showing increases (German Power and Nordic Power both saw gains in broker cleared). UK Power recorded MoM growth driven by broker bilateral’s 5% gain in market share, however total volume remains down 10% YTD.

Coal saw MoM increases in all three commodities with exchange executions being the main benefactor, gaining 7% market share and breaking the 40% market share barrier (42% exchange executed /58% broker cleared). Will exchange executions become the majority market share holder in 2018? ICE showed gains in the cleared market share, up 4% to 80% vs CME. Front month prices of API2 rose 12% MoM to $95 per tonne.

Emissions continued to grow, up 1% MoM, with broker bilateral taking a sizeable hit in market share, down 15% to 2%, primarily at the benefit of broker cleared.

Downloadable Content

File:
Euro Commodities Report - May 2018


15.05.18

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA.

April 2018 saw 6.893 million monthly contracts traded, down 15.7% vs March 2018. All groups except Emissions saw MoM declines, with Euro Gas the greatest, down 28% (1,199 TWh) to 3,155 TWh. UK Power and Coal also saw noticeable drops of 11% and 7% respectively, with UK Gas and Euro Power experiencing a smaller percentage but...


17.04.18

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018 saw 8.181 million monthly contracts traded, up 9.8% vs. February and although March had one more trading day than February, this is still the first time since March 2017 that monthly contracts have broken the 8 million mark. UK Power, Emissions and Euro Gas...


12.03.18

February 2018: February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP

February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP.

Volume growth across the Euro Commodities markets was varied this month as monthly traded contracts grew 6% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017 but declined 2.8% MoM to settle at 7.454 million monthly contracts traded (February had 20 trading days vs. January’s 23). Euro Gas, Emissions and Euro Power were positive...


13.02.18

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

Volume growth in the Euro Commodities markets in January 2018 was mixed. Total volumes grew 2% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017, to 7.67 million monthly contracts traded. Euro Gas and Emissions were positive contributors to this growth, up 17% and 3% YTD 2018 vs. YTD...


17.01.18

December 2017: Recap on 2017, total volume down 8% vs. 2016, numerous events affecting gas markets in December.

December 2017: Recap on 2017, total volume down 8% vs. 2016, numerous events affecting gas markets in December.

Monthly volumes in December 2017 were down 20% to 6.280 million monthly contracts vs. November 2017. All commodity groupings contributed to the monthly decline following a similar trend to previous years. Coal had the largest decline, down 50% while UK Gas declined 27% and Euro Power 24%. Total market volumes...


14.12.17

Gas drives MoM growth, French Power supply constraints linger and Coal continues shift to exchange execution.

November 2017: Gas drives MoM growth, French Power supply constraints linger and Coal continues shift to exchange execution. 

What a start to December it has been with a gas explosion at Baumgarten gas facility and the North Sea crack likely to drive trading activity in the normally subdued last month of the year. December promises to bring an interesting report, not only our annual summary and discussion on Mifid II market...


21.11.17

Volumes down MoM, French Power prices continue to rise driven by supply constraints and ICE winning in Coal.

October 2017: Volumes down MoM, French Power prices continue to rise driven by supply constraints and ICE winning in Coal.

October saw monthly contracts decline from their high in September to 7,053m, down 9.8% MoM. Gas markets were the main driver, accounting for two thirds of the total MoM decline. In contrast, strong YoY performances from Emissions (up 33% YoY) and UK Gas (up 5% YoY) have helped reduce the YTD...


12.10.17

Strong volume growth across the board, Gas shifting to bilateral and French Power prices surge

September 2017: Strong volume growth across the board, Gas shifting to bilateral and French Power prices surge. 

September marked the first month of autumn with higher volumes. Monthly contracts traded up 22% MoM to 7,817m. The growth in contract volume came from the Continent with Euro Gas and Euro Power accounting for 81% of the increase. The strong performance reduced the YTD deficit by 1% to end the month down 10% at...


13.09.17

Power volumes increase while NBP makes a comeback amid slow gas market volumes.

August 2017: Power volumes increase while NBP makes a comeback amid slow gas market volumes.

August ended the summer months with a strong performance in monthly contracts traded, up 12% MoM to 6,405m. The improvement is largely driven by UK Gas (up 18% MoM), which accounted for almost 40% of the total MoM increase in contracts traded. The growth did not spread to UK Power, dropping 9% MoM to 139m monthly contracts....