August 2019: Monthly contracts traded down 19% vs. strong July, 2019 low for Euro Gas, TTF price up again.
Monthly contracts traded in August fell 19% vs. July, to 7.502 million contracts, the lowest figure since the start of 2019. While an unusually active July for contracts traded no doubt skews the perceptions on growth this month, it is interesting to note that August 2018 rose 16% vs. July 2018. All commodity groups correspondingly recorded MoM falls of over 10%, with Euro Gas leading the way with a 21% decline, followed by UK Gas and Coal, both with 19% falls against July. With the recent volatility in the gas market still causing uncertainty, TTF prices rose for a second successive month, while the benchmark Emissions contract, EUA-19 fell from its July record price.
Euro Gas dynamics continue to be intriguing into August with the largest commodity grouping in terms of volume falling a considerable 21% against July. This was driven by a 22% decline in TTF volumes, which fell below 3,000 TWh for the first time this year. Five out of the eight Euro Gas commodities saw MoM falls, NCG down 21%, Austria VTP down 21% and PSV down 29%, while Gaspool was only up 1% and France Hubs was flat. However, looking at a longer period of time, the Euro Gas grouping remains strong with six out of seven (ex PVB – not included as we only have two months' worth of data) displaying double digit YoY and YTD growth rates, headlined by TTF, 53% YTD and 35% YoY growth, and Gaspool, 33% YTD and 61% YoY growth.
On the other hand, NBP volumes continue to fluctuate, falling 19% MoM following a 9% increase June to July. YoY volumes for NBP have also declined, down 27%, and August 2019 now represents just 55% of the volume traded this time two years ago. NBP market composition also saw interesting movements this month, with broker market share rising 6% to 44% of all NBP trades in August. The Euro Gas grouping also saw a slight market share shift towards the brokers, with broker bilateral execution gaining 2% market share. Bucking the trend in Euro Gas, Austria VTP saw its second highest (since records began in Jan-11) exchange executed market share of 22%, up 3% vs. July.
TTF front month prices rose for a second successive month, up 16% to €12.80/MWh while NBP also saw positive growth, up 11% to £33.03/MWh. However, elsewhere amongst the Euro Gas grouping with the exception of ZEE and PVB, front month prices generally saw falls and a look at these commodities' YoY growth rates gives a good insight into the market dynamics at play in the global gas landscape. Is the rise of efficient LNG ports and readily accessible shipping information causing European gas prices to converge towards the prices of their American substitutes?
The European power market saw similar movements to the gas market in August though declines against July were to a lesser extent. The Euro Power grouping fell 11% MoM with the influential German Power also falling 11% to 474 TWh. UK Power declined 15% while Nordic Power had a strong month, rising 26% to 88 TWh to become the second highest Power commodity traded by volume in August. Along with higher trading volumes, August was also a good month for brokers trading Nordic Power, where broker cleared execution market share shifted 4% from exchange executed. This was largely against the trend however, as the Euro Power grouping as a whole saw exchange executed gain 3% of market share.
It is also interesting to note that despite Spanish Power following the August trend finishing down 6%, the commodity displays YTD and YoY growth rates unmatched in Europe, 17% and 42% respectively. Is the large capacity of Spanish regasification plants and the growing demand for natural gas for power generation affecting trading volumes in Spanish Power?
Movement of front month price in the power market displayed a mixed bag of results with German Power falling 2% to €38.63/MWh while UK Power rose 1% to £42.27/MWh.
Coal volumes were down 19% MoM to 109 million metric tonnes (mmT) driven by a 20% fall in API2 volumes. Likewise, API4 fell 15% and gC Newcastle fell 11%. It is not only the MoM figures showing declines in the coal market, YoY and YTD growth rates for all three coal contracts were negative in August representing the fundamental shift underway in the energy market. API2 front month prices fell 5% to $55.00/tonne following last month's rise and gC Newcastle fell 5% to $65.75/tonne. ICE also grew its cleared market share in coal by 4% to hold 72% while CME had the remaining 28%.
Occasionally, the Emissions market has the capability to move in the opposite direction to the general European energy market trend for that month. However in August, it followed gas, power and coal and experienced falls, with EUAs down 17% and CERs down 99%. Following July's record high EUA price (since Jan-11), August prices fell 6% to €26.32. EUA exchange executed market share also rose 7%, to hold 79% of the market.
July 2019: Monthly contracts up 12% MoM; Euro Gas volumes double YoY; prices up
Monthly contracts traded in July were up 12% vs June, to 9.225 million monthly contracts traded. All commodity groupings recorded month on month growth, with all bar UK Gas growing 10% or over MoM. YTD 2019 monthly contracts traded are up 22% vs. YTD 2018.
MoM growth in July is a seasonal anomaly, as July is a traditionally slow...
June 2019: Contracts traded down 1% vs May, TTF front month price down 10%, Emissions up 18% MoM, H1 2019 review.
Monthly contracts traded in June 2019 fell for a third successive month, down 1% MoM to 8.201 million, as Europe saw record heatwaves towards the end of the month. UK Gas saw the biggest drop, down 9% MoM, Euro Power fell 3%, whilst Euro Gas and UK Power fell 1%. Emissions bucked the trend, up 18% MoM, and...
May 2019: Monthly contracts down 8% vs. April, Euro Gas and Power see brokers reclaim market share, TTF down 9% MoM.
May 2019 saw monthly contracts fall for a second successive month, down 8% MoM to 8.306 million and down 18% from March's record high. In a month which has, over the past two years, seen recoveries, commodity markets saw falls across the board with UK Power down 16% and Euro Power down 11%. Euro Gas,...
April 2019: Monthly contracts down 11% from March record, exchange executions see record high 38% market share, UK Power up 7% vs March.
April 2019 saw monthly contracts traded fall below last month's record high of 10.083 million to 9.013 million, down 11% MoM. Euro Gas drove April's seasonal volume decline, down 12%, while Emissions fell 14%. UK Power was the only commodity group to show unlikely April growth, up 7%...
March 2019: TTF up 22% vs February to surpass 3,800 TWh, NBP grows 27% MoM, German Power down 5% MoM, Emissions down vs February.
March 2019 saw 10.083 million monthly contracts traded, up 12% MoM, a record high and the first time the figure has broken 10 million contracts traded (since our records began in Jan-11). Euro Gas drove the volume, up 17% MoM, contributing to over 85% of the total MoM change as we saw TTF reach a new...
February 2019: Another record month for Euro Gas, driven by TTF and NCG highs. German Power up 8% MoM, Emissions up 8% MoM.
February 2019 saw 8.970 million monthly contracts traded, up 2% MoM. Emissions was the largest climber, 8% vs January, with Euro Power up 6%. Following a record start to the year, Euro Gas reached new heights in February at 3,889 TWh, up 4% MoM. The remaining groups saw a decline in volumes, with...
January 2019: Record month for Euro Gas, mixed performance for Euro Power, broker bilateral market share gains in five of the six commodity groups.
January 2019 saw 8.818 million monthly contracts traded, up 45% MoM following a low December, with all groups rising with the exception of Emissions. Following its record low in Dec-18, Coal rose 123% MoM, with UK Gas (63%) and Euro Gas (60%) also notable monthly risers....
December 2018: NBP and Coal lowest months on record, recap on 2018, total volume up 10% vs 2017, TTF and EUA standout years.
Total monthly contracts traded in December came in at 6,076,181, down 32% MoM. All groups dropped in the seasonally low month of December, led by Coal (-64%) and UK Gas (-43%), with Euro Gas and UK Power both falling 32%. Total 2018 monthly contracts traded ended at 91,538,536, up 10% vs...
November 2018: TTF volumes continue to rise, Emissions volume data correction and coal volumes up 18% MoM.
Total monthly contracts traded in November came in at 9,884,471, down 4% MoM. The decline was mainly due to lower Emissions, Euro Power and UK Gas volumes while Coal and Euro Gas bucked the trend by posting MoM volume increases. Total 2018 YTD monthly contracts traded are up 11% to 85.5m vs 2017 YTD. LEBA, from...