x

Market Dynamics Report

April 2019: Monthly contracts down 11% from March record, exchange executions see record high 38% market share, UK Power up 7% vs March.

April 2019 saw monthly contracts traded fall below last month's record high of 10.083 million to 9.013 million, down 11% MoM. Euro Gas drove April's seasonal volume decline, down 12%, while Emissions fell 14%. UK Power was the only commodity group to show unlikely April growth, up 7% MoM. Euro Power and Coal saw smaller declines, down 6% and 3% respectively. Commodities across the board saw prices plateau from extended falls since the turn of the year.


Exchange executed contracts in April rose to a record 3.402 million, with market share up 6% MoM to a historic high of 38% (since Jan-11). Broker cleared (10%) and broker bilateral (52%) both experienced 3% drops in market share. As we reach 12 months since the implementation of MiFID II, what could be driving this market shift towards the exchanges?

Gas

Euro Gas volumes remained above 4,000 TWh for the second month in a row, despite finishing down 12% MoM at 4,006 TWh. TTF, which has seen 36% and 25% March to April declines in the previous two years respectively, fell a modest 9% to 3,476 TWh. Notwithstanding this overall TTF fall, volumes within each execution method remained in the top three historically (since Jan-11), with a record high exchange executed volume. TTF market share continued to shift this month, with exchange executions accounting for a record 32% of volume, up 4% MoM, and broker bilateral falling 3% to 61%, a record low for the second consecutive month. Broker cleared share fell 1% MoM to 7%.

All other gas commodities saw April declines, NBP down 8% to 1,172 TWh and NCG down 27% to 160 TWh. It's worth noting that five of eight gas commodities observed YoY growth of over 30%, including Austria VTP (87%), TTF (86%) and PSV (73%) – highlighting the growth in Euro Gas. May the combination of cooler April temperatures in comparison to last year's record highs as well as record high LNG receipts in Europe be accountable? Market share movements also saw a wholesale shift in the gas market, with exchange executed market share rising for seven of the eight gas commodities, primarily at the expense of broker bilateral. NBP displayed the largest swing with a 13% surge to exchange executions (8% from broker bilateral and 5% from broker cleared), with France Hubs seeing an 11% shift all from the brokered market. As we move into May, will we see a similarly strong recovery in the gas market as we witnessed last year, where volumes rose 26%?

Power

As it did in 2018, volume in German Power held relatively firm during the seasonal decline in April to finish down 2% MoM. Euro Power as a whole fell 6% with French Power leading the falls, down 20% MoM. UK Power managed to buck the seasonality trend to finish 7% higher MoM, with Dutch Power the only other power commodity to display April growth, up 1%. Looking at YTD figures, UK Power is up 11% and Euro Power is up 1%, driven by strong YTD performances from Spanish Power, up 22%, and Italian Power, up 14%. Similar to the gas market, Euro Power saw changing group dynamics, with wholesale shifts in market share towards exchange executions. Seven of the nine power commodities saw a rise in exchange executed market share with Belgian Power leading the way in percentage terms with a 10% rise (8% from broker bilateral), while German Power and Nordic Power both experienced 3% swings from broker cleared to exchange executed.

UK Power prices saw a mild recovery from a steady decline since November 2018, up 4% MoM to £43.18 per MWh, as did the majority of the Euro Power markets, with German Power up 7% MoM to €38.35 per MWh, and Nordic Power up 9% MoM to €40.85 per MWh. Will we see prices rebound in the power market following a consistent period of decline?

Coal

Coal volumes for April fell 3% MoM to 133mmT driven by a 5% fall in API2. API4 coal recovered slightly from its slow start to 2019 and saw the largest commodity growth in April, up 20%, though is down 27% YTD. The UK's recent coal-free week is further driving home the adoption of renewables in the global energy landscape. All three traded coal commodities saw moderate swings in market share from broker cleared to exchange executed, with API2 exchange executed market share up 5%, API4 up 4% and gC Newcastle up 6%. The cleared coal market saw ICE's market share move to 75%, up 6%, following a fall in March, with CME holding the remaining 25%.

Emissions

Emissions volumes again saw the largest fall of all commodity groups in April, down 14% MoM, following an 11% decrease in March. The group currently sits down 14% YoY and up 10% vs YTD 2018. CERs finished down 60% MoM and EUA volume fell 14%, while EUA Dec-19 prices rose a record high of €26.29 / tonne, up 22% from March. How much longer will see restrictions on the auction of emission permits within the UK?

Downloadable Content

File:
PDF


12.04.19

March 2019: TTF up 22% vs February to surpass 3,800 TWh, NBP grows 27% MoM, German Power down 5% MoM, Emissions down vs February.

March 2019: TTF up 22% vs February to surpass 3,800 TWh, NBP grows 27% MoM, German Power down 5% MoM, Emissions down vs February.

March 2019 saw 10.083 million monthly contracts traded, up 12% MoM, a record high and the first time the figure has broken 10 million contracts traded (since our records began in Jan-11). Euro Gas drove the volume, up 17% MoM, contributing to over 85% of the total MoM change as we saw TTF reach a new...


13.03.19

February 2019: Another record month for Euro Gas, driven by TTF and NCG highs. German Power up 8% MoM, Emissions up 8% MoM.

February 2019: Another record month for Euro Gas, driven by TTF and NCG highs. German Power up 8% MoM, Emissions up 8% MoM.

February 2019 saw 8.970 million monthly contracts traded, up 2% MoM. Emissions was the largest climber, 8% vs January, with Euro Power up 6%. Following a record start to the year, Euro Gas reached new heights in February at 3,889 TWh, up 4% MoM. The remaining groups saw a decline in volumes, with...


13.02.19

January 2019: Record month for Euro Gas, mixed performance for Euro Power, broker bilateral market share gains in five of the six commodity groups

January 2019: Record month for Euro Gas, mixed performance for Euro Power, broker bilateral market share gains in five of the six commodity groups.

January 2019 saw 8.818 million monthly contracts traded, up 45% MoM following a low December, with all groups rising with the exception of Emissions. Following its record low in Dec-18, Coal rose 123% MoM, with UK Gas (63%) and Euro Gas (60%) also notable monthly risers....


16.01.19

December 2018: NBP and Coal lowest months on record, recap on 2018, total volume up 10% vs 2017, TTF and EUA standout years.

December 2018: NBP and Coal lowest months on record, recap on 2018, total volume up 10% vs 2017, TTF and EUA standout years.

Total monthly contracts traded in December came in at 6,076,181, down 32% MoM. All groups dropped in the seasonally low month of December, led by Coal    (-64%) and UK Gas (-43%), with Euro Gas and UK Power both falling 32%. Total 2018 monthly contracts traded ended at 91,538,536, up 10% vs...


19.12.18

November 2018: TTF volumes continue to rise, Emissions volume data correction and coal volumes up 18% MoM

November 2018: TTF volumes continue to rise, Emissions volume data correction and coal volumes up 18% MoM.

Total monthly contracts traded in November came in at 9,884,471, down 4% MoM. The decline was mainly due to lower Emissions, Euro Power and UK Gas volumes while Coal and Euro Gas bucked the trend by posting MoM volume increases. Total 2018 YTD monthly contracts traded are up 11% to 85.5m vs 2017 YTD. LEBA, from...


15.11.18

October 2018: TTF and EUA continue their rapid growth with further records; power market volume traded down MoM; coal market YTD volumes continue trend of decreasing volume and increasing exchange execution market share

October 2018: TTF and EUA continue their rapid growth with further records; power market volume traded down MoM; coal market YTD volumes continue trend of decreasing volume and increasing exchange execution market share.

October 2018 saw a continuation of September's trends, with both TTF and EUA posting record volumes traded. Monthly contracts traded were up 6% vs. September, led by Emissions, Euro Gas and Coal, up 26%, 12% and...


17.09.18

September 2018: TTF and EUA with record volume months, German Power highest since Nov-16.

September 2018: TTF and EUA with record volume months, German Power highest since Nov-16.

September 2018 was a tale of the large commodities within the groups driving high monthly figures. 8.888 million monthly contracts were traded, up 29% MoM, with all groups rising vs August. Emissions was the standout up 60% as its strong year continued. Euro Power rose 46% MoM, reaching a high not seen since Nov-16, with Euro Gas rising 24%...


13.09.18

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018 saw 6.912 million monthly contracts traded, up 16% MoM, signalling the end of the summer lull in trading. All groups rose MoM, UK Power the standout up 26% with UK Gas also strong up 24%. Euro Gas drove the MoM growth however, up 18% MoM it accounted for 54% of the total monthly growth. YTD we have seen 58.864 million monthly...


09.08.18

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018 saw 5.953 million monthly contracts traded, down 18% MoM, with total volumes the lowest recorded since April 2017. All groups fell vs June - UK Gas most notably down 28%, with Euro Gas, Euro Power and Coal all dropping 17% MoM. YTD we have seen 51.953 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs...