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Market Dynamics Report

August 2018: Volumes bounce back following low July, cleared market records in NBP.

August 2018 saw 6.912 million monthly contracts traded, up 16% MoM, signalling the end of the summer lull in trading. All groups rose MoM, UK Power the standout up 26% with UK Gas also strong up 24%. Euro Gas drove the MoM growth however, up 18% MoM it accounted for 54% of the total monthly growth. YTD we have seen 58.864 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs YTD 2017.

Gas

NBP rose 24% MoM to 1,179 TWh, with a notable 8% loss in broker bilateral market share with 6% moving to exchange executions. Exchange executions now holds 55% market share, the highest ever recorded (since Jan-11), with the cleared market also peaking at 65% share – what has been the key driver behind this? The MoM growth was not enough to mask the weak year for NBP, down 17% YTD and 25% YoY. TTF kept relative pace with NBP’s growth, rising 21% MoM to 2,058 TWh. Broker bilateral market share for TTF fell 1% to 72%, with Broker Cleared and Exchange Executions splitting the gains.  TTF’s volume was 175% of NBP’s this month, a 4% drop vs July. A year ago this figure stood at 100%, it’s a very different picture 12 months on as TTF has become the main gas price hub and benchmark in Europe. ZEE was the star Gas performer for the month, up 79% MoM, whilst the two German Hubs were the only ones to experience drops, both Gaspool and NCG falling 8% MoM. Elsewhere France Hubs rose 14% MoM, driven by an 8% increase in broker bilateral share at the expense of exchange executions.

Power

Seven of the nine Power commodities rose MoM, with Nordic Power and UK Power the standouts at 27% and 26% respectively. Broker bilateral drove UK Power growth, gaining 4% market share from exchange executions. German Power rose 11% MoM to 501 TWh to remain up 1% in the YTD metric. Euro Power as a whole rose 12% MoM and is up 3% YTD. Spanish Power was the notable faller, down 25% MoM. Broker cleared share fell 22% MoM to end at 21%, the lowest since Feb-17, whilst exchange executions saw its market share rise to 71%, a record high in the Spanish Power market. In contrast to July where it was the only MoM riser, Belgium Power fell 3% from July to August. It remains up however in both YTD (60%) and YoY (176%) metrics and is the standout Power commodity this year.

Coal

The July lull allowed some positive Coal metrics to appear in August, with 6% growth MoM. Whilst API2 was down 2% MoM it was buoyed by strong performance from the other two contracts, with API4 up 20% and gC NEWC up 60% MoM. Interestingly though the YoY metrics were up for all three contracts, a rare glimmer of positive trading volume news in this market. ICE gained 3% market share, up to 78%, whilst API2 front month price was up 4% to $98.80 per tonne. 

Emissions

Emissions grew 5% MoM to 725,493 tonnes traded, driven by EUA’s 5% MoM expansion. YTD Emissions remains up with a healthy 50% growth. The same can’t be said for CER, falling 94% MoM and down in all three metrics, with broker cleared volumes back to zero following 62% market share in July. EUA prices for Dec-18 continued upwards, rising 21% to €21.09.

Downloadable Content

File:
Euro Commodities Report


09.08.18

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018: Lowest volume since April 2017, YoY TTF growth masks Euro Gas decline, German Power drives Euro Power YoY growth.

July 2018 saw 5.953 million monthly contracts traded, down 18% MoM, with total volumes the lowest recorded since April 2017. All groups fell vs June - UK Gas most notably down 28%, with Euro Gas, Euro Power and Coal all dropping 17% MoM. YTD we have seen 51.953 million monthly contracts traded, up 9% vs...


16.07.18

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018: Volumes down across the board, German Power down YTD vs 2017, France Hubs volatility continues.

June 2018 saw 7.287 million monthly contracts traded, down 14% MoM. High temperatures across Europe appear to have brought the summer trading lull a month earlier than 2017. All groups fell vs May, UK Power the highest with a 22% drop, with Emissions (18%), Euro Power (14%) and UK Gas (13%) showing notable drops too. YTD...


13.06.18

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD.

Volumes up across the board MoM, mixed performance YTD. TTF remains strong, exchange executions break 40% market share in Coal.

May 2018 saw 8.408 million monthly contracts traded, up 22% MoM following a low April. All groups rose vs April, with UK Power the highest, recording a 31% MoM increase. Euro Gas, UK Gas and Euro Power also saw noticeable increases at 26%, 25% and 23% respectively. YTD we have seen 38.605 million...


15.05.18

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA.

April 2018 saw 6.893 million monthly contracts traded, down 15.7% vs March 2018. All groups except Emissions saw MoM declines, with Euro Gas the greatest, down 28% (1,199 TWh) to 3,155 TWh. UK Power and Coal also saw noticeable drops of 11% and 7% respectively, with UK Gas and Euro Power experiencing a smaller percentage but...


17.04.18

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018: Broker bilateral volume gains in Euro Gas, TTF and France Hubs set record monthly volumes and Emissions see price and volume jump.

March 2018 saw 8.181 million monthly contracts traded, up 9.8% vs. February and although March had one more trading day than February, this is still the first time since March 2017 that monthly contracts have broken the 8 million mark. UK Power, Emissions and Euro Gas...


12.03.18

February 2018: February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP

February 2018: Volumes up YTD; broker bilateral gives up market share; Euro Gas volumes robust, TTF volumes 180% of NBP.

Volume growth across the Euro Commodities markets was varied this month as monthly traded contracts grew 6% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017 but declined 2.8% MoM to settle at 7.454 million monthly contracts traded (February had 20 trading days vs. January’s 23). Euro Gas, Emissions and Euro Power were positive...


13.02.18

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

January 2018: Volumes up with mixed segment performance; Euro Gas second largest month since records start; broker bilateral gains in five of six commodity groupings

Volume growth in the Euro Commodities markets in January 2018 was mixed. Total volumes grew 2% YTD 2018 vs. YTD 2017, to 7.67 million monthly contracts traded. Euro Gas and Emissions were positive contributors to this growth, up 17% and 3% YTD 2018 vs. YTD...


17.01.18

December 2017: Recap on 2017, total volume down 8% vs. 2016, numerous events affecting gas markets in December.

December 2017: Recap on 2017, total volume down 8% vs. 2016, numerous events affecting gas markets in December.

Monthly volumes in December 2017 were down 20% to 6.280 million monthly contracts vs. November 2017. All commodity groupings contributed to the monthly decline following a similar trend to previous years. Coal had the largest decline, down 50% while UK Gas declined 27% and Euro Power 24%. Total market volumes...


14.12.17

Gas drives MoM growth, French Power supply constraints linger and Coal continues shift to exchange execution.

November 2017: Gas drives MoM growth, French Power supply constraints linger and Coal continues shift to exchange execution. 

What a start to December it has been with a gas explosion at Baumgarten gas facility and the North Sea crack likely to drive trading activity in the normally subdued last month of the year. December promises to bring an interesting report, not only our annual summary and discussion on Mifid II market...