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Market Dynamics Report

April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA.

April 2018 saw 6.893 million monthly contracts traded, down 15.7% vs March 2018. All groups except Emissions saw MoM declines, with Euro Gas the greatest, down 28% (1,199 TWh) to 3,155 TWh. UK Power and Coal also saw noticeable drops of 11% and 7% respectively, with UK Gas and Euro Power experiencing a smaller percentage but higher nominal declines, down 3% and 2% respectively. YTD we have seen 30.196 million monthly contracts traded, up 6% vs YTD 2017. Europe has basked in record high April temperatures, has this further magnified the tradition April drop in volumes?

Euro Gas saw a reversal of the March 2018 growth, with all but one regional market experiencing declining volumes MoM. Although TTF volume eased back from a record month in March to 1,869 TWh in April it was still up 25% YoY and up 18% YTD. NBP has continued to record lower volumes YoY, down 9% and TTF’s value of NBP stood at 155%, the lowest figure since November 2017.

France Hubs experienced strong volume growth in March however April was a different story. MoM it declined 72% to 42 TWh, the lowest monthly total of 2018. However, YTD it remains up 48% but down 21% YoY. The broker bilateral market share gains from March were undone, dropping 16% back to 69%.

Looking at Euro Power, despite German Power declining 3% YoY the commodity group advanced volumes 5% YoY. Italian and French Power providing the majority of the growth up 62% and 26% respectively. Broker cleared made market share gains in five of the eight European markets, Spanish Power the most notable with an 11% increase MoM at the expense of broker bilateral.

Coal continues with lower YTD volumes with all three commodities in the group down double digits YTD and the group collectively down 18%. The only shimmer of growth was API2, up 5% YoY. The cleared market battle between ICE and CME was flat vs. March as ICE retained 76% of the cleared market with CME holding the remaining 24%.  

Emissions were the only group to increase MoM, with a 1% growth. It continues to be a strong performer in 2018 with April 2018 volumes for EUA the second highest on record at 953 tonnes (since Jan-11). These gains came from broker bilateral volumes rising to the highest figure seen since records began (496 tonnes) and increasing EUA broker bilateral market share MoM from 1% to 17%, primarily at the cost of broker cleared.

From May 2018 we shall be including OMIE Spot Spanish Power data.

Downloadable Content

File:
Trayport Euro Commodities Report - April 2018

Downloadable Content

File:
Trayport Euro Commodities Report - April 2018